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T20 World Cup 2026: Pakistan's semi-final qualification scenario explained

KANDY: Pakistan’s road to the semi-finals of the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026 has become increasingly narrow after a heartbreaking two-wicket defeat against England in their Super Eight fixture.

The loss has left Pakistan with just one point from two matches in Super Eight Group 2, courtesy of their washed-out encounter against New Zealand.

While their campaign now hangs in the balance, mathematical chances of qualification remain alive, albeit dependent on other results.

England, meanwhile, have already punched their ticket to the semi-finals after registering back-to-back wins, sitting comfortably on four points at the top of the group.

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For Pakistan, the equation is straightforward at first glance: they must defeat Sri Lanka in their final Super Eight fixture. A loss would officially end their campaign.

However, even victory alone may not be enough.

Pakistan currently have a net run rate (NRR) of -0.461, which could prove decisive if teams finish level on points.

Sri Lanka, placed at the bottom of the group with no points and an NRR of -2.550, still have two matches to play, against New Zealand and Pakistan, and could influence the final standings significantly.

Scenario 1

Pakistan’s simplest path to the semi-finals requires them to beat Sri Lanka and hope New Zealand lose both of their remaining matches against Sri Lanka and England.

In that case, Pakistan would finish with three points and advance to the semi-finals.

Scenario 2

If New Zealand manage to win one of their remaining two games, Pakistan would still need to defeat Sri Lanka, but with a substantial margin to improve their NRR and edge past the Black Caps in the standings.

Should New Zealand win both of their remaining fixtures, Pakistan will be eliminated regardless of their own result.

READ: Shadab Khan achieves major T20I milestone against England

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