Can Pakistan still qualify for Champions Trophy semi-final after India defeat?

The defending champions and hosts Pakistan suffered a crushing defeat against arch-rivals India in the high-stakes ICC Champions Trophy 2025 clash, leaving their title defence hanging by a thread.

The six-wicket loss on Sunday has left the hosts in a precarious position, but while their semi-final hopes look bleak, they are still not mathematically out of the tournament—at least, not yet.

While batting first, Pakistan managed a modest 241 before getting bowled out in the final over. In reply, India cruised to victory with 45 balls to spare, thanks to a masterclass from Virat Kohli, who notched up a brilliant century.

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With two defeats in as many matches, Pakistan now find itself in a desperate situation, relying not just on their own performance but also on the outcomes of the remaining Group A fixtures.

For Pakistan to have any chance of sneaking into the semi-finals of the ICC Champions Trophy 2025, everything needs to fall perfectly into place.

Firstly, Bangladesh must beat New Zealand today to keep Pakistan’s hopes alive. Then Pakistan must defeat Bangladesh by a big margin on February 27.

A narrow win won’t be enough; they need to significantly boost their net run rate (NRR) while collecting two crucial points.

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Pakistan would then need India to beat New Zealand on March 2 comprehensively. If India dominates the Blackcaps, New Zealand will also finish with just two points, leaving NRR as the decider for the second semi-final spot.

However, if New Zealand beats Bangladesh today, Pakistan’s fate will be sealed, with both them and Bangladesh officially eliminated from the tournament.

Adding to the uncertainty, a washout in any of the remaining fixtures would also end Pakistan’s campaign prematurely.

READ: ‘Brainless Captaincy’ Shoaib Akhtar reacts to Pakistan’s loss against India